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Having lived and ministered for six very happy years in Canada at the end of the last century, I am justifiably wary as an American about opining on Canadian politics. Canada is, after all, a different country with its own issues and concerns. All politics may not be local, but much of it certainly is. That said, since President Trump inserted himself into Canadian politics, both by means of tariffs and by his expression (taken seriously by many Canadians) of designs against Canadian sovereignty, the recent Canadian election has been unusually influenced by the unexpectedly strange turn in American politics.
Before Trump’s election, Canada seemed to suffer from the world-wide pattern of popular anger at incumbent parties. The Conservatives, newly led by a stylistically populist Pierre Poilievre, were widely expected to win a parliamentary majority thanks to widespread cost-of-living concerns and the dramatic decline in former Prime minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity. Then Trump was elected President and the U.S. suddenly seemed to pose an existential threat to Canada. Meanwhile Trudeau stepped down, and the Liberal Party chose Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of Canada (and also former Governor of the Bank of England) as a very different leader.
The result has been a remarkable shift in electoral politics. As of this morning, with 99% of the polls having reported results, the Liberals have won168 seats of the 172 needed for a majority. The Conservatives appear set to remain in opposition as the second-largest party, with 144 seats so far. (Of the minor parties, Bloc Québécois is leading in 23 seats, NDP is leading in 7, and the Green Party in only 1.)
Besides being an amazing political comeback for the Canadian Liberal Party, the election results also suggest a significant rebuke to Donald Trump from your northern neighbors whose annexation he claims to desire.
Of course, a foreign election has no immediate impact upon the United States, but it is suggestive. On this Trump’s 100th day in his second term (an altogether artificial marker, but one widely invoked nonetheless), we are all reminded that however much politics may over-reach, there are always limits when voters actually assert themselves.
